2026 Study
50 Safest Counties from Natural Disasters (2026)
Using FEMA's National Risk Index, we ranked US counties with 50,000+ residents by their overall natural hazard risk — including floods, tornadoes, wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes, winter storms, and drought.
Data: FEMA National Risk Index · 2023 Census ACS · Updated January 2026
Published January 1, 2026 · Updated April 25, 2026
Key Findings
- 1. Bristol County, Rhode Island is the safest large county with an overall risk score of 19.4.
- 2. The safest counties tend to be inland, away from hurricane and flood zones, with low seismic activity.
- 3. 50 counties with 50,000+ residents qualified for this ranking based on complete FEMA risk data.
Top 50 Safest Counties
Counties with 50,000+ population · Ranked by lowest overall risk score
| # | County | State | Overall | Flood | Tornado | Wildfire | Hurricane | Earthquake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol County Pop. 50,568 | Rhode Island | 19.4 | 65.8 | 12.9 | 3.7 | 74.2 | 51.0 |
| 2 | Harrisonburg city Pop. 51,492 | Virginia | 26.6 | N/A | 23.2 | 10.6 | 70.6 | 65.1 |
| 3 | Calvert County Pop. 93,791 | Maryland | 28.9 | 59.4 | 17.3 | 52.6 | 81.7 | 50.1 |
| 4 | Franklin County Pop. 50,379 | Vermont | 29.2 | N/A | 14.8 | 12.6 | 59.1 | 60.1 |
| 5 | Calumet County Pop. 52,626 | Wisconsin | 30.2 | N/A | 58.2 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 15.4 |
| 6 | Campbell County Pop. 55,398 | Virginia | 32.0 | N/A | 23.0 | 43.0 | 72.0 | 61.0 |
| 7 | Union County Pop. 65,293 | Ohio | 32.7 | N/A | 49.5 | 4.1 | 23.0 | 48.6 |
| 8 | Broomfield County Pop. 75,110 | Colorado | 34.7 | N/A | 61.9 | 72.4 | N/A | 48.0 |
| 9 | Queen Anne's County Pop. 50,951 | Maryland | 35.6 | 67.2 | 33.2 | 59.6 | 78.5 | 54.3 |
| 10 | Warren County Pop. 53,484 | Iowa | 36.1 | N/A | 65.9 | 59.4 | 7.6 | 20.5 |
| 11 | Newport County Pop. 85,095 | Rhode Island | 36.4 | 61.4 | 17.0 | 13.7 | 80.2 | 57.3 |
| 12 | Jessamine County Pop. 53,792 | Kentucky | 39.8 | N/A | 69.3 | 6.7 | 40.4 | 55.7 |
| 13 | Putnam County Pop. 97,988 | New York | 39.8 | 40.6 | 29.8 | 19.7 | 73.2 | 65.1 |
| 14 | Spalding County Pop. 68,215 | Georgia | 40.9 | N/A | 62.2 | 37.9 | 56.3 | 67.2 |
| 15 | Jackson County Pop. 80,640 | Georgia | 41.9 | N/A | 69.4 | 28.8 | 65.2 | 67.7 |
| 16 | St. Mary's County Pop. 114,372 | Maryland | 42.6 | 63.0 | 39.4 | 59.0 | 85.1 | 57.2 |
| 17 | Franklin County Pop. 54,958 | Virginia | 42.7 | N/A | 17.9 | 38.1 | 69.2 | 55.2 |
| 18 | Boone County Pop. 72,827 | Indiana | 43.2 | N/A | 39.6 | 7.0 | 14.1 | 68.0 |
| 19 | Hancock County Pop. 82,013 | Indiana | 44.0 | N/A | 73.9 | 4.9 | 14.6 | 69.8 |
| 20 | Charles County Pop. 168,710 | Maryland | 44.1 | 52.4 | 29.2 | 19.2 | 78.0 | 68.3 |
| 21 | Chisago County Pop. 57,434 | Minnesota | 44.5 | N/A | 64.2 | 65.5 | N/A | 4.4 |
| 22 | York County Pop. 70,590 | Virginia | 44.7 | 57.4 | 42.4 | 55.9 | 81.7 | 54.3 |
| 23 | Frederick County Pop. 93,355 | Virginia | 44.7 | N/A | 33.4 | 57.8 | 76.4 | 59.7 |
| 24 | Jefferson County Pop. 55,835 | Tennessee | 44.9 | N/A | 59.6 | 42.9 | 42.9 | 82.6 |
| 25 | Dearborn County Pop. 50,828 | Indiana | 45.2 | N/A | 75.5 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 52.4 |
| 26 | Barrow County Pop. 86,982 | Georgia | 45.6 | N/A | 66.4 | 19.6 | 48.1 | 66.3 |
| 27 | Barry County Pop. 62,982 | Michigan | 46.0 | N/A | 72.1 | 24.8 | 21.1 | 35.1 |
| 28 | Culpeper County Pop. 53,563 | Virginia | 46.2 | N/A | 31.3 | 35.5 | 70.9 | 65.1 |
| 29 | Ashland County Pop. 52,296 | Ohio | 46.3 | N/A | 57.3 | 30.0 | 43.8 | 43.9 |
| 30 | Washington County Pop. 53,913 | Virginia | 46.6 | N/A | 30.1 | 33.2 | 55.0 | 72.7 |
| 31 | Seneca County Pop. 54,861 | Ohio | 46.9 | N/A | 58.0 | 2.8 | 44.1 | 57.1 |
| 32 | Twin Falls County Pop. 92,121 | Idaho | 46.9 | N/A | 13.4 | 94.0 | N/A | 74.0 |
| 33 | Clinton County Pop. 79,419 | Michigan | 47.0 | N/A | 76.9 | 13.2 | 34.3 | 32.2 |
| 34 | Newaygo County Pop. 50,414 | Michigan | 47.1 | N/A | 45.4 | 44.8 | 22.2 | 29.0 |
| 35 | Hamblen County Pop. 64,930 | Tennessee | 47.1 | N/A | 61.4 | 40.2 | 39.9 | 85.9 |
| 36 | Montgomery County Pop. 99,159 | Virginia | 47.5 | N/A | 23.7 | 37.0 | 57.1 | 73.4 |
| 37 | Fauquier County Pop. 73,935 | Virginia | 47.7 | N/A | 16.5 | 34.8 | 72.1 | 61.2 |
| 38 | Cass County Pop. 51,606 | Michigan | 47.7 | N/A | 64.5 | 19.0 | 31.8 | 51.3 |
| 39 | Jefferson County Pop. 58,546 | West Virginia | 47.8 | N/A | 36.6 | 21.9 | 69.1 | 62.8 |
| 40 | Fulton County Pop. 52,787 | New York | 48.6 | N/A | 40.0 | 27.4 | 64.5 | 58.1 |
| 41 | Tooele County Pop. 76,648 | Utah | 48.9 | N/A | 13.6 | 97.3 | N/A | 83.6 |
| 42 | Lynchburg city Pop. 79,255 | Virginia | 49.3 | N/A | 31.8 | 8.7 | 74.3 | 73.0 |
| 43 | Hoke County Pop. 53,102 | North Carolina | 50.1 | N/A | 75.8 | 80.2 | 84.0 | 64.9 |
| 44 | Huron County Pop. 58,412 | Ohio | 50.3 | N/A | 67.3 | 15.7 | 45.4 | 52.6 |
| 45 | Ozaukee County Pop. 92,345 | Wisconsin | 50.3 | 31.0 | 59.3 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 26.4 |
| 46 | Rutland County Pop. 60,484 | Vermont | 50.5 | N/A | 25.8 | 23.0 | 70.0 | 58.2 |
| 47 | Newton County Pop. 115,530 | Georgia | 50.6 | N/A | 73.3 | 40.4 | 54.4 | 62.2 |
| 48 | Pickaway County Pop. 59,407 | Ohio | 50.9 | N/A | 52.9 | 18.6 | 26.7 | 54.0 |
| 49 | Bedford County Pop. 80,254 | Virginia | 51.2 | N/A | 25.1 | 66.6 | 73.0 | 60.2 |
| 50 | Franklin County Pop. 71,962 | North Carolina | 51.7 | N/A | 70.8 | 27.0 | 74.6 | 54.2 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does natural-hazard risk matter for relocation if I'm not in a known disaster zone?
Two reasons that compound. First, hazard risk shows up in homeowner's insurance premiums, and those premiums have been repricing dramatically — Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast have seen annual premiums double or triple in 5 years. Second, climate conditions are getting more extreme year over year. Hurricanes are getting stronger, wildfire seasons are getting longer, and that trend isn't reversing. People aren't fully pricing in how sought-after low-hazard inland markets will be over the next decade as coastal markets become harder and more expensive to insure.
What's actually in the FEMA "overall risk score"?
It's a composite of expected annual loss from 18 natural-hazard types, weighted by exposure (how much value is in the path), social vulnerability (how well the community can absorb a loss), and community resilience (how well it can recover). It's the standard government measure for cross-county hazard comparison and the basis for federal mitigation grants.
Why aren't any coastal counties on the safest list?
Hurricane and storm-surge exposure dominate the FEMA overall score for coastal counties — even ones that haven't had a major direct hit recently. The model accounts for what could happen, not just what has happened. Inland counties in the Mountain West, parts of the Northeast away from the coast, and the Upper Midwest tend to dominate the safest list.
Does this account for climate change projections?
The FEMA NRI is based on historical data plus modeled exposure — it doesn't fully forecast climate change trajectories. The implication: counties showing moderate hurricane or wildfire risk today may show higher risk in future updates as those hazards intensify. Treat the current rankings as a baseline and weight inland-low-hazard markets more if you're planning a long-horizon move.
What about flood insurance and homeowner's insurance costs?
Highly relevant and not directly in this ranking, but correlated. Counties with high flood scores typically require federal flood insurance (which is being repriced upward via FEMA's "Risk Rating 2.0"). Counties with high hurricane or wildfire scores have seen private homeowner's insurance carriers either raise premiums sharply or exit the state entirely. The actual dollar cost of "living somewhere risky" has materially increased, even before any disaster occurs.
Should I prioritize a low-hazard county over other factors?
Depends on time horizon and risk tolerance. For a 5-year hold, hazard risk is one input among many and probably not the deciding factor. For a 20+-year hold or a primary retirement decision, hazard risk increasingly compounds with insurance cost and property value impact — and the gap between low-hazard and high-hazard markets is likely to widen rather than narrow over the coming decades.
Methodology
We used FEMA's National Risk Index (NRI) overall risk score to rank US counties with a population of 50,000 or more. The NRI combines expected annual loss from natural hazards with social vulnerability and community resilience factors.
Hazard types included:
- Flood: Riverine and coastal flooding risk
- Tornado: Tornado frequency and intensity
- Wildfire: Wildland fire probability and exposure
- Hurricane: Tropical cyclone wind and storm surge
- Earthquake: Seismic hazard and ground motion
- Winter Storm: Ice storms, blizzards, and extreme cold
- Drought: Agricultural and hydrological drought
Counties are ranked from lowest (safest) to highest overall risk score. Only counties with 50,000+ residents and complete FEMA NRI data are included.
Data sources: FEMA National Risk Index (NRI), US Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2023). Risk scores are relative measures and do not predict specific events. This analysis is for informational purposes only.